Thursday, 29 August 2013

Negativity Toward BlackBerry:

The negativity toward BlackBerry has gotten completely out of hand. I believe a motivational group of people have a subversive agenda to disintegrate BlackBerry from existence.
It is one thing to present accurate evidence about the company's performance and another making opinions sound as if they were facts. This type of journalism causes confusion and misleads potential investors and consumers, thereby hindering the company's overall image.
The driving force for continued innovation is fair competition. Continually portraying BlackBerry with none-fact based information hinders that innovation. BlackBerry along with its patent portfolio can easily exist in this massive multi-billion dollar smart phone industry. I believe this unique industry can easily sustain four major smart phone platforms, if not more. (AAPL) Apple's iOS, (GOOG)Google's Android,(MSFT) Windows WP8 and (BBRY) BlackBerry's BB10

Quarterly Performance:

The chart below illustrates why BlackBerry is far from extinction. The slight downward trend seems to have reversed itself ever since the launch of BlackBerry 10. If you compare Q1 2013 to Q1 2014, BlackBerry continued to run debt free, increase its cash and revenue, but had a slight decrease in smart phone shipments. My predictions for Q2 2014 is bullish, BlackBerry has had a complete quarter with the Q10. In this respect, I can see smart phone shipments in excess of its previous quarter.

Debt Free Does Not Equal Bankruptcy:

How can a company that has $3.1B cash, up from $2.9B and continues to run debt free go Bankrupt? Yet we continue to hear people saying just that. BlackBerry shipped an average of 900K smart phones per month ending Q1 2014. That does not sound like a company going bankrupt. BlackBerry has also been gaining momentum with its BES10 implementation with 10's of thousands of BES10 installations, though results may not be seen until 3rd to 4th Quarter Fiscal 2014.

Mobile Usage by StatCounter:

Another factor in eliminating the old bankruptcy argument is the continuation of increased mobile OS penetration. I've come up with Mobile OS Usage numbers from January 2013 to August 2013, all based on The chart below clearly shows steady gain in mobile usage in several countries. Despite some decline in some countries, the trend still points upwards. Both USA and Africa are the big gainers for BlackBerry, with Indonesia showing some modest gains as well. Due to the vast populations of the mentioned counties, I see an opportunity for BlackBerry to grow and flourish.

In closing,

BlackBerry going bankrupt should be put to rest, an old argument that has been proven wrong many times. They've been slowly increasing market share. BlackBerry's next few Quarters will be very important. They need stronger sales to push them into 2014. The Q10/Q5 sales along with BES10 implementation and the soon to launch Z30 (A10) should be enough to cushion BlackBerry into next year. Based on previous road maps and direct statements by BlackBerry's CEO, we should see a total of six BlackBerry 10 devices by the end of the year. The only two remaining devices are code names R10 and R5. Could BlackBerry be planning a new 10" PlayBook? I am hoping this is the case, so that BlackBerry can complete its mobile ecosystem.